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The bottom line: I believe that the unwind of the gross mispricing and misallocation of assets will not end well. Bottom line: hasn’t changed—long term, the indices remain strong viz a viz their moving averages and uptrends across all timeframes. Bottom line: the pin action improved a bit yesterday, though the DJIA’s technical position continues to deteriorate and both of the indices’ 100 day moving averages are rolling over. Bottom line: while trade dominated the news cycle this week, the economic releases were quite negative including the primary indicators—which support my thesis that the economy isn’t nearly as strong as many contend. The bottom line remains that both of the Averages continue to trade above their 100 and 200 day moving averages and are in uptrends across all time frames—with the assumption being that stock prices are going higher. As long as the S if it remains there through the close on Monday, it will revert to resistance) while the S but the risk is it just moves the goal posts on inflation like it did on growth.
Now, I am assuming someone with very little investing background and who may or may not know who is Warren Buffett. I just don’t know what the trigger event is. So bond investors still don’t appear to be concerned about a Fed rate hike today. Me, I don’t understand why anyone wants a 2% inflation rate. GLD investors are apparently more concerned about a rate rise than the bond guys; but part of its poor performance could be impacted by cryptocurrencies. In addition, the dollar and the long bond continue to trade like a safe haven—confirming somewhat the DJIA’s performance. Literature shows that home bias results in lower performance as the investor gives up the opportunities of investing in better managed companies overseas. The Fed released the results of stage two of its stress test which addresses the banks’ ability/freedom to pay out capital to shareholders. The Fed released its latest Beige Book.
Yesterday’s economic data reports continued this week’s poor performance: weekly jobless claims rose more than expected plus (the third revised) first quarter GDP growth and the June Kansas City Fed manufacturing index were disappointing. Connect the first wire to the negative input first so you don’t get shocked. As you know, I believe that second quarter numbers will be an improvement from the first quarter, probably stimulated by the tax increases. The GOP tax circle jerk is worse than nothing except for its political implications. There is nothing improper about that. There are a number of possible reasons for this, including low interest rates, old homes, and a changing real estate market. Buffett explained that the liquidation value of the firm was much higher than the market price. If the value investing inoculation worked on you then you probably have what it takes to commit. Stocks of old established companies may have one or two letter symbols. Many MLPs, REITs & high yield (junk) bond funds have yields well into double digits.